Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 on Friday, buoyed by a sharp decline in expectations of a Fed rate hike. A weekly technical signal turned positive, Strategy stock surged 17%, and spot ETFs saw renewed inflows. Has the bull run truly resumed?
Bitcoin surpasses $80,000 and crosses a threshold
Bitcoin’s price is trading around $80,826 this Friday, up nearly 4% in 24 hours. BTC has thus erased part of the summer correction and moved back above a key psychological threshold for traders.
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The trigger is macroeconomic. Traders now estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at around 50%, compared to over 63% at the beginning of the week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The pivot point was set by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he was prepared to support maintaining the status quo if inflationary pressures continue to ease. Bond yields retreated, prompting buyers to return to all risk assets, including technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4%, closing at 26,584 points.
Is Bitcoin back in a bull run? The indicator that was triggered after $126,000 has just reversed.
From a technical perspective, a Crypto Rover analyst notes that Bitcoin’s weekly Supertrend signal has just turned green, an indicator that has historically marked the start of prior bull runs.
Strategy soars, ETFs return to inflows
This rise in Bitcoin is benefiting Strategy’s stock, which jumped 17.6% on Thursday to $144.82, regaining a premium of approximately 12% over the net value of its Bitcoin reserves. The group now holds 845,050 BTC, worth nearly $69.5 billion at the current price.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs are also following the trend. They saw $730.8 million in net inflows on Thursday, according to data from Farside Investors, following $101.1 million in inflows the previous day. The rebound is particularly strong after the $236.5 million in outflows recorded on Tuesday.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund dominated inflows, attracting $454 million in Thursday’s trading session alone. It was followed by Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB, with $137.7 million, and then Fidelity’s FBTC with $74.4 million. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust also drew $48.8 million. Conversely, VanEck’s HODL experienced $19.6 million in withdrawals.
Bull run confirmed or false start?
This acceleration suggests that the derivatives market or short covering does not solely drive BTC’s rise above $80,000. The return of flows to ETFs is also a source of cash demand. However, several consecutive sessions of inflows will be needed before we can speak of a sustained return of institutional investors.
⏱️️ Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin (BTC)?
Caution remains advised. BTC is only up 1.7% over the past seven days and remains about 36% below its all-time high of $126,195, reached in October 2025. The next technical levels traders are watching are $82,000 and $84,000.
The US jobs report released this Friday, followed by inflation figures next week, should dictate the next steps. September also remains a historically challenging month for Bitcoin, as our analysis of the spectre of “Rektember” reminds us.
